As per a very credible agency who has done BJP’s internal survey in past INDIA alliance numbers
UP – 36
Bihar – 22
WB – 29
MH – 31
TN – 39
Kerala – 20
Karnataka – 19
Punjab – 12
Delhi – 4
Haryana – 6
Telangana – 12
Rajasthan – 12
Gujarat – 2
Chhatisgarh – 4
Jharkhand – 6
HP – 2
Assam – 5
North East – 4
Odisha – 3
J&K – 2
UTs – 4
AP – 01
MP – 04
INDIA alliance is set to around 279 seats slightly more than the majority. As per this survey, SCs, STs, minorities and farmers community has voted in huge numbers for INDIA alliance.
First time voters first preference has been INDIA because of it’s jobs promises. INDIA leads by 18% in 18-35 age segment. NDA leads by 7% in 48-65 age segment. Women voters have chosen INDIA in south, in UP, 2% more women have votes for NDA than INDIA.
MP has seen most dramatic fall in women voting as compared to 2023 assembly which may throw surprising results.
Rajput community protests and good candidate selection may help Congress in opening account in Gujarat after 10 years.
1 lakh in women account, 30 lakh Govt Jobs, 1st guaranteed jobs have changed the numbers in Uttar Pradesh. Tejashvi’s campaign, track record of 17 months and jobs promise has given INDIA an edge in Bihar.
Low decibel campaign, no hindu muslim polarization in West bengal is bringing BJP’s tally down in the state, rise of Left has also pushed to BJP on number 3 in several seats
Odisha may see repeat of 2019 results with Congress winning 2 more seats of Balasore and Nabrangpur as compared to last election
Congress may open account in Andhra Pradesh through it state congress chief YS Sharmila Reddy winning election from Kadapa
Despite heavy polarization attempt by BJP, Congress has managed to significantly increase its tally in Telangana and keeping BJP below 5
Implementation of guarantee and one sided voting preference of women in Karnataka has made Congress break its 25 year old record of 18 seats in 1999 Lok Sabha election
UDF may manage to win around 18 seats in Kerala once again with LDF managing to win 2. BJP’s dream of opening account in Kerala may remain a dream with Suresh Gopi from Thrissur not able to maintain momentum
INDIA alliance faced the challenge of double anti incumbency in Tamilnadu with sitting MPs and state Govt but it has negated by women voting preference in INDIA. INDIA may manage to win 38 out of 40 seats of TN and Puducherry, ADMK has improved its vote share but not increased seats because of absence of a national alliance
Maharashtra has seen the sharpest rise of INDIA because of several factors including sympathy for Udhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar and Congress’s campaign has also remained strategic. Maratha Protests led by Manoj Jarange also led to consolidation of marathas against BJP. SCs who backed Prakash Ambedkar last time have mostly voted for INDIA alliance this time.
Overall, INDIA alliance has done fairly well in every state including UP, Bihar, Maharashtra and WB which accounts for 210 seats out of 543 in the country.
NDA is certainly going to lose at least these many seats from following states in 2024
Karnataka – 14
Maharashtra – 23
Bihar – 19
UP – 15
Rajasthan – 11
Haryana – 5
Punjab, HP, J&K – 5
MP, Chhatisgarh – 6
West Bengal – 6
Delhi – 3
Others – 5
Overall, NDA is certain to lose atleast 111 seats from 2019 elections. It can’t increase any seat other than AP technically. There’s no possibility of NDA winning more than 250 seats in 2024 Lok Sabha elections which eventually means BJP below 215.
Change in Govt in 2024 is certain and just a matter of time. INDIA alliance workers must work hard to get maximum seats in 7th phase for a better and stronger mandate for INDIA.
- Anshuman Sail Nehru
